Category File
Pearl Harbor
5 documented theories filed under this subject.
- Radar SabotageThis theory claimed that the radar operators at Opana Point detected the incoming Japanese planes and were then ordered to ignore the contact by a secret pro-war faction determined to ensure the success of the Pearl Harbor attack. In its strongest form, the theory says the dismissal of the radar plot was not a tragic mistake by an inexperienced officer, but a deliberate act of sabotage. The documented record confirms that the Opana radar station detected the incoming planes, that the contact was reported, and that Lieutenant Kermit Tyler told the operators not to worry because he believed the signal was from expected B-17 bombers. Official inquiries later found Tyler inadequately trained and not culpable. The public record does not support a secret pro-war cabal directing the radar dismissal.
- Wind MessageThis theory claimed that a secret Japanese “winds execute” weather broadcast—often remembered as “East Wind Rain”—signaled the coming attack on Pearl Harbor, that U.S. intelligence intercepted it, and that the warning was then suppressed or lost. In its strongest form, the theory says the message gave Washington a clear final signal of imminent war with the United States and should have triggered an immediate alert to Pearl Harbor. The historical record strongly supports that the Japanese had prepared a winds-code system and that U.S. officials knew of the set-up message describing the phrases. What it does not support is a confirmed intercepted execute broadcast before Pearl Harbor or a documented warning message to Kimmel based on such an intercept.
- Insurance FleetThis theory claimed that the U.S. Navy intentionally sent its newest and most valuable aircraft carriers out to sea before the Pearl Harbor attack, preserving the real future power of the Pacific Fleet while allowing the older battleships to be sacrificed. In its strongest form, the theory argues that Washington or naval command knew carriers had replaced battleships as the decisive arm of modern sea power and therefore shielded them from the strike. The historical record confirms that the Pacific Fleet’s carriers were not at Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941. It also shows that Enterprise and Lexington were away on aircraft-ferry missions to Wake and Midway and Saratoga was undergoing refit on the U.S. West Coast. The public record does not support that these absences were arranged as a sacrificial insurance policy.
- Red WarningThis theory claimed that the Australian government warned Washington that a Japanese fleet was moving toward Hawaii and that the warning was ignored or suppressed. In its strongest form, it holds that Australian or Allied monitoring stations detected movement or radio signals from the Japanese striking force and passed a clear alert to the Roosevelt administration on December 6, 1941. The public record for this claim is weak. It appears chiefly in later political rumor and Pearl Harbor revisionist literature rather than in the strongest official documentary record. NSA historical writing specifically identifies the Australian-warning story as one of the cover-up rumors circulating in Washington during the 1944 election controversy.
- Purple Code BreakthroughThis theory claimed that Franklin D. Roosevelt and senior U.S. officials knew the Pearl Harbor attack was coming because American cryptanalysts had already broken Japan’s Purple code but allowed the strike to happen in order to force the United States into World War II. In its strongest form, the theory says that decrypted diplomatic traffic gave Washington advance warning of the target, date, and likely form of the attack, and that Roosevelt chose not to alert Hawaii because a surprise attack would overcome domestic resistance to war. The historical record strongly supports that the United States broke the Japanese Purple diplomatic system before Pearl Harbor. It does not support the claim that Purple traffic provided direct military intelligence on the Pearl Harbor strike or that it identified the attack target in time to stop it.